Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.283998 2.428165 2.581141 2.756305 2.952273 3.165878 3.417851
2025-02-16 2.044540 2.237925 2.453698 2.714873 3.026048 3.389731 3.854397
2025-02-23 1.900084 2.121257 2.376720 2.698456 3.100186 3.595972 4.272585
2025-03-02 1.790107 2.028468 2.311164 2.678478 3.154890 3.770415 4.660732
2025-03-09 1.702211 1.952346 2.255518 2.659879 3.201795 3.931060 5.044304
2025-03-16 1.634770 1.894977 2.216469 2.655495 3.261894 4.110101 5.475673
2025-03-23 1.590833 1.863039 2.205709 2.684729 3.366934 4.360467 6.055258
2025-03-30 1.527248 1.801764 2.152043 2.650172 3.376010 4.466320 6.413911
2025-04-06 1.469494 1.744750 2.100153 2.613305 3.376593 4.556248 6.757707
2025-04-13 1.407650 1.679391 2.033410 2.550537 3.332101 4.567416 6.956112
2025-04-20 1.383010 1.661924 2.030210 2.577756 3.425898 4.814643 7.659870
2025-04-27 1.362829 1.649187 2.032311 2.611972 3.532413 5.095657 8.504892
2025-05-04 1.341658 1.634698 2.031862 2.643304 3.638891 5.395211 9.495099
2025-05-11 1.305746 1.598528 1.998943 2.623020 3.657667 5.534574 10.150729
2025-05-18 1.274307 1.567273 1.971493 2.609183 3.685597 5.694582 10.916128
2025-05-25 1.243545 1.535782 1.942203 2.590444 3.702870 5.834983 11.682058
2025-06-01 1.215057 1.506460 1.914768 2.572866 3.720309 5.977664 12.516650
2025-06-08 1.192006 1.484013 1.896450 2.568720 3.761317 6.176363 13.629479
2025-06-15 1.178820 1.475105 1.897740 2.596370 3.863164 6.526445 15.488806
2025-06-22 1.150608 1.443662 1.863870 2.563684 3.847631 6.603017 16.348970
2025-06-29 1.123246 1.412701 1.829685 2.528797 3.825192 6.660301 17.174793
2025-07-06 1.090934 1.373765 1.782193 2.469356 3.750740 6.581206 17.352691
2025-07-13 1.081285 1.367611 1.784656 2.495138 3.846996 6.944719 19.957813